Friday, October 2, 2009

Replay of 1994 next year?

Ezra Klein seems to think not. The early 1990s were a different time. The demographics were more favorable to the GOP, with the exception of the White House the GOP had been out of power for a fairly lengthy time, white Gen-X-ers were rebelling against anything that resembled the 1960s and 1970s (and let's face it, old Bubba was an easy target for all that was bad about that era), and the GOP could act as if it were an alternative. These days, we're all (or mostly all, with the exception of the ultra-ultra-rich) paying the price for near absolute GOP rule, the white folks most likely to favor the GOP are increasingly concentrated in one region of the US (predominantly the US south, in particular the Appalachian and Ozark regions), and this generation of young voters are probably about as fed up with us Gen-X-ers as many of my peers were fed up with the boomers. So for the purposes of next year's horse race, don't expect a repeat of 1994.

What would be interesting (though so improbably that I will bet my last nickel against it) is if a viable third party presence emerged - my fantasy would be something genuinely from the left. My guess is by the end of 2010, the status quo will be mostly in place.

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